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Home > Technical questions about OvuSense Sensor and App > What is the difference between a realtime prediction and a realtime confirmation from OvuSense?

What is the difference between a realtime prediction and a realtime confirmation from OvuSense?

A realtime OvuSense prediction notifies you in advance during your cycle that ovulation may be about to happen, and a confirmation notifies you that ovulation has happened. OvuSense uses two separate methods for prediction and detection.

Along with your prediction, OvuSense will show a green shaded area of your “ovulation window” on your graph, with the predicted day of ovulation shaded as a blue vertical line. The ovulation window is the four days immediately around ovulation, from one day before until two days after ovulation.

The prediction method has a clinically proven sensitivity of 89% meaning that it picks up 89/100 ovulations in advance, but a positive predictive value of 96% which means that 96/100 predictions it makes are correct. Combining the data gives an overall accuracy figure of 89%*. The algorithm was deliberately designed not to give you the false hope of an ovulation if it might be wrong and that’s why it misses out some ovulations, but is good at getting them right when it does show one. The prediction message appears up to one day in advance of ovulation.

OvuSense detection has a sensitivity of 99% meaning it picks up all by 1 in every 100 ovulations, and a positive predictive value of 100% meaning it’s gets them all right. Combining the data gives an overall accuracy figure of 99%*. The detection message is displayed 3 days after you have ovulated, by which time it has much more data to make the calculations and that’s the reason why it’s able to pick up more ovulations, more accurately.

* Papaioannou S, Delkos D, Pardey J (2014).